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On February 19, 2015, the press conference on the economic operation of the machinery industry was held in Beijing. Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, and Zhao Xinmin, deputy secretary general of the China Federation of Machinery Industry and director of the Statistics and Information Work Department, China Yao Jie, deputy secretary-general of the Automobile Industry Association, attended the meeting. At the meeting, Vice President Chen Bin briefed the development of the machinery industry in 2015 and the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. During the analysis and forecast of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2016, he pointed out: 2016 The machinery industry will continue the trend of steady growth since the fourth quarter of last year, and the annual growth rate will be similar to that of 2015. Specifically, it is expected that the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry will be around 5.5% for the whole year, the growth rate of the main business income and profit will be around 3.5%, and the foreign trade export is expected to achieve positive growth.

In 2015, in the context of the complicated global economic environment and increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, the machinery industry has earnestly implemented the central government’s work requirements for “stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure” and worked hard to consolidate pressure. The economic growth rate of the whole industry slowed down, but the main economic indicators still achieved positive growth; under the guidance of the market retreat and policies, the pace of structural adjustment accelerated, and the transformation and upgrading efforts increased.


Looking ahead to 2016, there is still a lot of downward pressure on the development of the industry. There are still many difficulties and problems, but there is still confidence and determination. The machinery industry will fully implement the spirit of the 18th National Congress of the Party and the Third Plenary Session of the 18th, 18th, and 18th Central Committee, earnestly implement the decision-making and deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, and implement the “Made in China 2025” as the starting point and the market as the orientation. With enterprises as the main body and innovation as the foundation, and on the basis of maintaining the steady development of the machinery industry, the restructuring of the machinery industry will be promoted, transformation and upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase, and efforts will be made to realize the healthy development of the industry.

I. Economic Operation of Machinery Industry in 2015

(I) The growth rate of major economic indicators has dropped significantly

1, the development speed is lower than the industrial average

In 2015, the value-added of machinery industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of 4.5% in the previous year, and 0.6% lower than the average growth rate of the industry in the same period (6.1%). The growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is lower than the average growth rate of the industry in the country. This is rare in recent years, highlighting the seriousness of the industry situation.

2. The growth rate of main business income dropped significantly

In 2015, the total income from main operations of the machinery industry totaled 22.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year, and the growth rate was down 6.09 percentage points from the previous year, but it was 2.52 percentage points higher than the national industrial growth rate (0.8%) over the same period.

3, 70% of product output decreased by 30%

Of the 64 major mechanical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015, only 18 were output growth, which accounted for 28.13% of the total. There were 46 kinds of output decline, accounting for 71.87%. Specific analysis shows that large-scale investment products such as metallurgical mining equipment, construction machinery, conventional power generation equipment, and general machinery products with serious overcapacity, such as various types of ordinary machine tools, AC motors, wire and cable, etc., have a big drop in output; large-horsepower tractors and instruments The output of products such as instrumentation, environmental protection equipment, electric forklifts, wind power generation equipment, and sports multipurpose passenger cars (SUVs) in automobiles are closely related to consumption, people's livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, and industrial upgrading.

The output of CNC machine tools was 235,000 units, a decrease of 9.53% year-on-year.

The output of large tractors was 77,400 sets, an increase of 33% over the same period of last year.

The output of power generation equipment was 110 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, but it maintained a continuous output of more than 100 million kilowatts for 10 years.

The production and sales of automobiles were 24,503,300 vehicles and 24,519,600 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 3.25% and 4.68% year-on-year, respectively, and both production and sales exceeded 24,500,000 vehicles, setting another record high, ranking seventh in the world for the seventh consecutive year.

(II) The growth rate of profits is lower than the growth rate of main business income

In 2015, the growth rate of economic benefits of the machinery industry was lower than that of the main business, and loss-making enterprises and losses increased. The total amount of profits realized in the year totaled 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.46% over the previous year. The growth rate was down by 8.15 percentage points from the previous year and 0.86 percentage points lower than the growth rate of main business income during the same period. The profit rate of main business income was 6.96%, down by 0.06 percentage point from the same period of last year. The total tax revenue for the year was 886.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year; the company’s loss was 12.82%, up 2.85 percentage points over the previous year; the loss of loss-making enterprises was up 19.29%.

(c) Foreign trade import and export both have a worsening surplus

In 2015, the foreign trade of the machinery industry showed a decelerating downward trend, and the total import and export volume for the year reached 666.5 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.13%. Among them, the import of 277.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.06%; exports of 388.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%, there have been few negative growth since the international financial crisis in 2009. The annual trade surplus reached a record high of 111 billion U.S. dollars.

(4) The growth rate of investment in fixed assets continues to fall

In 2015, the total investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry was 4.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7 percent. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the investment in fixed assets of the whole society and 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry. This was a drop from the growth rate of the machinery industry in the previous year. At 3.02 percentage points, the growth rate has declined for four consecutive years.

(5) Weak demand leads to falling orders and persistently low prices

The overcapacity of low-end and middle-end products and the lack of market demand led to the decline in orders for machinery products and low prices. In 2015, the accumulated orders from key connected enterprises in the machinery industry continued the weakness of the previous year, and the growth rate further declined. The year-on-year growth rate was negative. The cumulative volume in the January-December period decreased by 4.02% year-on-year. It is expected that the lack of demand in the coming period will still be a mechanical industry. One of the important challenges.

The price index for machinery and industrial products continued the trend of operating at a low level for the previous year. By the end of 2015, the cumulative price index for mechanical products had been below 100% for 48 consecutive months. Of the 142 major machinery products, the cumulative price index decreased by 103 compared with the same period of last year, accounting for as high as 72.5%.

Second, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" machinery industry development

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is an extraordinary period of development of the machinery industry. In the past five years, the machinery industry has been moving forward in complex and difficult environments.

(I) The industrial economy has been developed, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly

During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the scale of the machinery industry further expanded, but the growth rate of the main indicators continued to decline.

On the scale, the total assets increased from 10.97 trillion yuan in 2010 to 19.27 trillion yuan in 2015. The growth rate dropped from an average annual increase of 23.55% in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period to an average annual growth of 11.91%.

In terms of output, the main business income increased from 13.96 trillion yuan in 2010 to 22.98 trillion yuan in 2015. The growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of 27.9% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period to an average annual growth rate of 10.48%.

In terms of efficiency, the total profit increased from 1.17 trillion yuan in 2010 to 1.6 trillion yuan in 2015. The growth rate has dropped from an average annual growth rate of more than 30% in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%.

In foreign trade, total exports increased from US$258.5 billion in 2010 to US$388.8 billion in 2015, an average annual increase of 8.51%; the trade surplus increased from US$3.136 billion in 2010 to US$111 billion in 2015, a 35-fold increase.

With the transition from the early to the middle period of industrialization, the development of the machinery industry has entered a new period of even more gradual growth.

(II) Changes in market demand structure

Different from the overall rapid growth during the “10th Five-Year Plan” and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the sub-sectors of the machinery industry entered the late period of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and the market demand structure has changed. The main sign of change is the increase in differentiation.

1. Rapid growth of products or industries related to people's livelihood and consumption

Taking the main business income and profit growth as an example, products and industries that are higher than the industry average include sports utility vehicles (SUVs), food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, instrumentation, and environmental protection machinery.

2. The industry relies mainly on investment to gradually decline

Taking the main business income and profit growth as examples, industries below the industry average are mainly construction machinery, petrochemical GM, heavy mining, and gold-cutting machine tools. These industries are all typical investment products in the machinery industry.

The automotive industry also presents the same trend of “rising consumer sub-sectors and declining investment categories”.

3. The situation of production and sales in industries related to intelligence and green is relatively good

The instrumentation industry, which is closely related to automation, information, and intelligent manufacturing, maintains a rapid growth rate. The situation of UHV power transmission and transformation equipment in the electrical industry is obviously better than that of conventional products; the situation of pumped storage units is better than that of conventional hydropower units; the situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment is better than conventional power generation equipment.

The above changes reflect that under the background of China's accelerated economic structure adjustment, the decreasing proportion of secondary production, and the rising proportion of tertiary production, the machinery industry gradually adapts to changes in market demand structure, and is gradually shifting from focusing on serving investment activities to paying more attention to it. And to tap the needs of consumption, livelihood and information, energy conservation and emission reduction.

(III) Significant achievements in innovation and development and accelerated adjustment of industrial structure

Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the ability of machinery enterprises to actively adapt to changes in the market during the “12th Five-Year Plan” has been continuously enhanced, the endogenous development momentum continues to increase, and industrial restructuring continues to advance.

1. Frequency of independent R&D results

High-tech equipment has achieved breakthroughs in independent R&D: large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC/DC and flexible DC power transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for long-distance oil and gas transmission pipelines, and key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industries. The development of the 350mw Supercritical Boiler for Zhundong Coal was successfully developed and put into use in engineering, which is of great significance to the economic development of Xinjiang.

The localization of high-end control systems has been gratifying: long-term control of imported DCS control systems for domestic industrial use has achieved results, domestic market share of DCS systems has exceeded foreign-funded products, and has the strength to participate in international competition.

2. The development of the "three bases" area continues to advance

The localization work of a group of key basic parts and core components that have long relied on imports has made progress. High-voltage insulation bushings, transformer outlets, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, large-scale power plant forgings, gas turbine high-temperature blades, large-scale nuclear static sealing devices, excavator supporting high-pressure valves, high-end bearings, LNG low temperature high pressure casting ball valve and other localization levels have increased significantly .

3, innovation and help development

Industry innovation capacity building has received attention and investment in basic test and experimental capacity development has increased significantly: Progress in the construction of basic test and test platforms that restrict new product R&D has progressed. Large compressor test rigs, water wheel model test rigs, and power station safety valve test rigs With the completion of such platforms, a few areas (such as high-current and high-voltage test capabilities) have reached the world's advanced level.

The pace of collaborative innovation is accelerating: cooperation between machinery companies, user companies, and R&D process innovations in research institutes is more intense and frequent. The cooperation model was innovative, and cooperation and research and development achieved remarkable results.

4. The contribution of private enterprises to the development of the industry continues to increase

In 2015, private enterprises realized main business income of 13.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.48% year-on-year, 3.16 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the machinery industry, accounting for 59.05% of the main business income of the machinery industry, compared with 2010. The proportion increased by 7.79 percentage points; the total profit realized was 886 billion yuan, and the proportion of profits realized in the machinery industry had reached 55.4%, 8.94 percentage points higher than that in 2010.

5. Regional structure continues to adjust in the expected direction

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the regional structure of the machinery industry continued to adjust to the direction of the policy. In 2015, the income from main operations in eastern, central and western regions accounted for 65.02%, 24.02% and 10.96% of the total income of the machinery industry, of which the proportion of the central and western regions increased by 5.52 percentage points over 2010; the total profit of the middle and western regions The proportion also increased from 30.82% in 2010 to 33.29% in 2015.

6, the extension of the extension of the slowdown, improve the investment structure

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry slowed down year by year, from 30.35% in 2010 to 9.7% in 2015, indicating that the rapid expansion of the industry has clearly slowed down. At the same time, the investment structure has been improved. In 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in reconstruction and technological transformation was higher than the average growth rate of industrial investment by 9.02 percentage points. In terms of the ratio, the investment in reconstruction and technological transformation accounted for 27.9% of the total investment in the machinery industry in 2015, an increase of 7.43 percentage points over 2010.

7. Optimization of Foreign Trade Structure

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the export structure of foreign trade in the machinery industry continued to be optimized, and the supporting role of general trade in the export of the industry was increasing. The proportion of general trade exports in total exports increased from 52.3% in 2010 to 60.51% in 2015, an increase of 8.21 percentage points; the general trade balance decreased from a deficit of 27.436 billion U.S. dollars to a surplus of 50.564 billion U.S. dollars.

8. Actively explore new ways of transformation and development

Smart manufacturing and "Internet +" started. Automatic production lines, digital workshops, modern logistics, etc. have formed a certain scale in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions; traditional construction machinery manufacturing enterprises and agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises have launched an "Internet +" attempt to open up new markets.

New formats and new models continue to emerge. The financing lease marketing model began to explore on a number of complete sets of projects such as metallurgy and mining; the emerging business models such as agricultural machinery e-commerce began to be applied; and the transformation of traditional enterprises into the manufacturing services industry continued to advance.

In short, the machinery industry has actively adjusted and actively adapted in the past five years, and has been striving to explore the path of innovation and development in the new normal.

III. Prospects for the Economic Operation of Machinery Industry in 2016

The year 2016 is the beginning of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, which indicates that China’s machinery industry has taken a new starting point for development. It should be noted that due to changes in the economic environment at home and abroad, the contradictions and problems faced by the machinery industry will be more complicated, and the task of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading will be even more onerous. In spite of this, the machinery industry still has the positive factors of stability. First, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified the economic policy tone of “stability for progress” and emphasized the main tasks of “de-capacity, destocking, de-leverage, cost reduction, short-cutting, and improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system”. The release of information on maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies is conducive to the advancement of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry. The second is that "Made in China 2025" and related supporting policies have been introduced one after another, indicating the direction for the long-term development and short-term adjustment of the machinery industry and providing policy support. Thirdly, industry associations are working with the relevant state agencies to step up research on policy measures for stable growth, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the machinery industry, striving to make efforts from both sides of supply and demand, pull demand, push applications, promote innovation and make up short Boards, structural adjustments, foundations, excellent environment, and increased profits provide a favorable policy environment for the development of the machinery industry and boost the confidence and determination of the entire industry.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the machinery industry will continue the trend of steady growth since the fourth quarter of last year, and the annual growth rate will be similar to that of 2015. Specifically, it is expected to